Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. Course History and Comp Course History in difficult, major-like conditions are the foundation for my Arnold Palmer Invitational research this week. Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more. Bermuda: Russell Knox. https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/arnold-palmer-invitational-odds-sleeper-picks-tommy-fleetwood/, Mexico, Caribbean, Atlantic islands, Central America, Top 50 Classic Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, Top 50 Modern Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, PGA Tour approves radical schedule changes, reducing fields in elevated events and ending cuts, Drivers used by PGA Tour pros ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. McIlroy is intimately familiar with Bay Hill, though, as a past champion (2018) and with no finish worse than T13 in the past five starts here. Skip to navigation. Compared to other top players, he has much less experience at Bay Hillplaying here just once, finishing T-49 in 2015. I love to pounce on players that are coming off an MC in which they gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, which was the case for Matsuyama at Riviera. And while hes only played in two PGA Tour events this season (29th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T21 at the Sony Open), Scott had a solid year last season, missing only two cuts in 20 tries and collecting five top-10s, four of which were top-5s. It seemed like the whole world was betting him at every turn. The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the world's top 50 golfers, and they are in for a difficult test. Getting cheeky with these parlays hasnt been profitable but this one feels too good to pass up. And youll find few whove shown more consistency here than Bradley. Theres been an interesting trend at the API over the past few years. Shriners: Sungjae Im. With all the top PGA Tour stars teeing it up again this week, the betting favorites share a lot of similarities with the very top of the Official World Golf Ranking. Since a second-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, Keegan Bradley has tied for 20th at the WM Phoenix Open and missed the weekend at Riviera thanks to an opening-round 75. With the Phoenix Open open complete, the stars of the PGA Tour head to Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, where Tiger Woods will make his long-awaited return. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (+110) over Jon Rahm (PointsBet) Rorys strokes-gained numbers at Bay Hill are insanehes gained nearly 75 strokes to the field in his eight appearances here. Wish it wouldve been his win at the Genesis but I still think he has win equity again this week and Im ready to burn him as a OaD play this week at Bay Hill. Lack: Cameron Young (+360, DraftKings) I have been surprised to see Cameron Young slide so quickly in the betting markets, despite nearly winning two majors last year and emerging as the best player in the world without a PGA Tour victory. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (+650, DraftKings) Can you stop taking the fun out of outright golf betting, Jon Rahm? Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. Hes just six starts removed from gaining nearly six strokes to the field on approach in Houston, and if he has anywhere close to that result with his elite off-the-tee game, plus his prowess on grainy Bermuda greens, he can absolutely follow Chris Kirk as back-to-back Georgia Bulldog victories. World No. Mayo: Keith Mitchell (45-1, DraftKings) The number is just too high when you can keep scrolling past his name and find truly elite players who just happen to be in worse current form. World No. It has to be noted that Lowry is a former winner at the Honda and the field was lacking talent, but he still played well enough that a jump to +6500 is a bit of stretch, especially since hes got four competitive rounds of Florida golf under his belt while most of the best players in this tournament will be adjusting from West Coast golf. Here are the stats you should be paying attention to. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. As for Conners, hes been somewhat shockingly bad of late, most noticeably at Riviera where he lost four strokes tee-to-green, something he hasnt done since the Memorial in June of 2021. He finished 29th last week at THE PLAYERS Championship and 10th the week prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational so he is playing some great Florida golf. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (21-1, FanDuel) As much as Id love to make this a consensus Willy Z week, I have to stick with Morikawa, who came close for me at both Torrey and Riviera. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. Full Leaderboard . World No. USE OF AND/OR REGISTRATION ON ANY PORTION OF THIS SITE CONSTITUTES ACCEPTANCE OF OURVISITOR AGREEMENT(UPDATED 1/6/23),PRIVACY AND COOKIES NOTICE(UPDATED 1/4/23) ANDCALIFORNIA PRIVACY NOTICE. Final DraftKings Picks PGA DFS Lineups - The Honda Classic Invitational Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (Premium Content) LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Mayakoba. READ MORE: Which college basketball teams are bettors cashing in on? The DFS price at $7,200 is more than fair, and projected ownership doesnt look to be over the top yet, so Im a full go on Steele at TPC Scottsdale. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. Gehman: Rory McIlroy Remember, these elevated events have replaced majors as the biggest purses in golf. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. by Mastercard. The 2022 U.S. Open begins on Thursday, June 16 at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass. Over the last 20 rounds, Rory is actually gaining 0.2 strokes more tee-to-green than Rahm but the putter has been a bit cold. Justin Thomas enters play in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge with +2500 odds to win after a 20th-place performance in The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC February 16 - 19 in his last tournament.Thomas has one win, and an average finish of 20th, in his 20 events during the past year There is no one way to attack TPC Scottsdale, however a profile of elite ball striking has been the common thread amongst contenders here over the years. Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (+105) over Cameron Young (DraftKings) Fleetwood has a long history of success at Bay Hill and while Cam Young looked good in his first start at API, hes been one of the worst-performing wind players in the field. If I was designing a golf course specifically for Cameron Youngs skill-set, it would look a whole lot like Bay Hill, as the 26-year-old remains one of the most dominant drivers of the ball in the world and an excellent long iron player. The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the world's top 50 golfers, and they are in for a difficult test. Jon Rahm (+750)Rory McIlroy (+1000)Scottie Scheffler (+1000)Justin Thomas (+1600)Xander Schauffele (+1600)Max Homa (+1800)Tony Finau (+1800)Collin Morikawa (+2200)Patrick Cantlay (+2500)Sungjae Im (+2500)Sam Burns (+2800)Viktor Hovland (+2800)Cameron Young (+3300)Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)Jason Day (+4000)Jordan Spieth (+4000)Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)Tom Kim (+4000)Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)Will Zalatoris (+4000). Hahn enters this week in the midst of an 8-event stretch in which hes gained strokes on approach. Arnold Palmer Invitational: Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood among top long-shot plays at this weeks PGA Tour stop Check out our betting preview for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Top 40 Parlay: Chris Kirk and Tyrrell Hatton to both finish Top 40 (+179). Hes not backing down. Finau has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. Each of the two rivals had claimed the other was always stealing his ideas. Skip to navigation. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. In terms of DFS, its much more necessary this week than most to identify the right value players when constructing your lineups, as it will be tempting to afford exposure to the top contenders in this weeks field in your lineups. The odds arent pretty, but my gut tells me that either Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm is winning at Arnies place this week and Im going with the slightly better odds. Given that he also has a win and a T2 in his past three starts here, I think he asserts himself on the leaderboard this week. Up to $1,250 on Caesars. Last weeks champion and new World No. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Still, it was a profitable week at the Honda and we move forward. Hes also top-30 in scoring on par 3s longer than 200 yards and par-4s over 500 yards, two huge buckets here at Bay Hill. Arnold Palmer Youll likely know pretty quickly with Kim, either hes making everything or nothing. Golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad, who correctly called Should he pull off a victory, he could turn a $10 bet into $550. List ranks top-20 in many of the key categories for the demanding test in store at Bay Hill, including Driving Distance, SG: OTT, Prox 200+ and Par-4: 450-500. Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, J.B. Holmes and Bubba Watson four of the last five champions at Riviera were priced at 50/1 or longer, with Holmes available at 140/1 in some places. Who are you taking? The event tees off Thursday, and Rahm is the 7-1 favorite in the latest 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Powers, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (65-1, FanDuel) Last week he was the toast of the town as the second favorite, and he wound up finishing top five. I think in what has been a battle of titans early in the year, Rory puts his hat in the ring with a win. 2 Rory McIlroy at +1000. Without any further delay, lets get to our WM Phoenix Open picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups. Hes been rounding into that DNA form recently, improving his strokes gained with ball striking in each of the past three tournaments. One of the shortest hitters on TOUR, hell enjoy the added distance boost in store at elevation in TPC Scottsdales firm and fast conditions. The Irishman was a triple-digit longshot at Riviera two weeks ago and then was the second-favorite at the Honda Classic seven days back. 1 Scottie Scheffler is tied for second with No. Speaking of patterns, how about the prices on Lowry lately? Elite drivers can separate themselves from the field on Bay Hill, as players like Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy have proven in recent years. For the third time in four weeks, all of the PGA TOURs best have assembled for an elevated event, this time in Orlando for the 2023Arnold Palmer Invitationalat Bay Hill. I dont think he can make enough putts to contend. As managing producer for GOLF.com, Cunningham edits, writes and publishes stories on GOLF.com, and manages the brands e-newsletters, which reach more than 1.4 million subscribers each month. Prior to Hovland, Mayakoba has been a week for middle- to longshots. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. Most of the games elite players opted out of the Honda, but they are back in a big way for the API. For the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023, Holliman is backing several longshots, including two players in his top 10 who are priced at almost 30-1. Robby Shelton finished T21 as a heartbreaker for our Top 20 bet but we were strong in hitting Shane Lowry as a Top 10 and Lowry over Sungjae Im in a matchup. follow. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. Thats remarkable and, while it has made his outright odds tough to stomach, I think that the Top 5 odds are more than palatable at this price given that hes done that at an 80% rate so far this season. Keegan is also one of the best in proximity on Par 3:150-200 yards, so he should have what it takes to survive the infamous Bear Trap, which features two par 3s measuring 179 and He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. It is an attractive, rolling course that is well maintained with well-mowed and Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Despite two disappointing finishes in Phoenix and Los Angeles, McIlroy was still brilliant from tee-to-greenlosing over eight strokes with the putter during that stretch. 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