Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan. The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. And there will be lots of casualties. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. [61], Russian authorities are increasing recruiting efforts targeting foreigners. ISW will revise this text and its assessment if it observes any unambiguous indicators that Russia or Belarus is preparing to attack northern Ukraine. Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. Losing 10,000 before breakfast never hurt the career of a Russian general, but with no surplus boys, Russia too is post-heroic. [10]https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; [11]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w [12]https://tassdot com/politics/1582547, [14]https://tassdot com/politics/1582471, [15]https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790809/;https://middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/, [16]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/, [17]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles. One year into the war in Ukraine, the conflict does not appear closer to ending, and Russian tanks appear no better at avoiding destruction. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russias military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Mr. Zelensky from his commanders. He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. The Russian military is being forced to increasingly rely on outdated Soviet-made equipment in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, pulling out weapons that have been The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. Send me updates about Slate special offers. We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. Thank you for joining us. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. Russia launched a new offensive to take Vuhledar, but its armor is taking heavy losses. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. Russia remains keen to play down the war and provides little information about its victories or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture. It's certainly true that the US's financial means allow it to deploy global power projection capabilities including nuclear-powered supercarriers and hundreds of stealth combat aircraft that far exceed anything Russia's military can do. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and author of "The New Rules Of War." Correction, Feb. 28, 2022: This article originally misidentified Gen. Omar Bradley as British. Image: AP. Nor have the Russians established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. WebRussias Overestimated Military Might. Amid the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, the Institute for the Study of The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russias military upgrades. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - FEBRUARY 14: Ukrainian soldiers load ammunition to tanks on the frontline near the towns of Vuhledar and Marinka as Russian-Ukrainian war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on February 14, 2023. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. When Russian forces rolled into neighboring Georgia in 2008, they carried the baggage of an outdated Soviet-era military: subpar communications, old equipment In reality, though there were real doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military prior to and during World War II, Russian military leaders were constrained by political purges, educational deficits, and linguistic barriers in the Soviet conscript soldiers. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. Chaotic destructiveness can only go so far. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. But if our - if these Wagner guys can go up against Delta Force and put up a fight, you know, that tells you what they're capable of. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. as well as other partner offers and accept our. Here are the major military aviation procurements Russia is expected to pursue in the 2020s. [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. Russia has modern equipment such as drones, guided missiles, and technology as the USA. Russia at the moment, are depleting their older Soviet era : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. They've moved troops around the country in slow, lumbering convoys that have seemed to get stuck at times, and they've had trouble keeping up their supply lines. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. Will This Make Biden Acknowledge the Supreme Court Is Out of Control. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. Click here. Right now, Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar are outnumbered when it comes to armor the first Leopard tanks donated by Poland arrived in Ukraine on Friday but the last two weeks have shown its mines are enough to hold back Russian tanks, at least for now. Furthermore, declines in the ruble-to-dollar exchange rates don't as directly affect the price of military hardware Russia buys from Russian firms, ie. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. Pointing out outdated stereotypes regarding Russia's military isn't meant to aggrandize its prowess, glorify its campaigns or defend human-rights abuses and invasions. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. A 2020 CSIS article, for example, counts 260,000 conscript soldiers and 410,000 contract soldiers, the latter paid an average of 62,000 rubles per month. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th [57]Russia reportedly loses 150 tanks a month in Ukraine while Russias sole tank production factory, UralVagonZavod, produces 20 tanks a month. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops continued unspecified offensive actions in the western Donetsk Oblast direction. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. Published Feb 25, 2023 3:07 PM EST. Thanks for signing up! MCFATE: I talked to people on the inside. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. So they reported lies to him instead. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. 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